
Product No.
99792 
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The Spread of Forest Fires (UMAP)
Emily E. Puckette

Mathematics Topic: Calculus, Probability 
Application Areas: Biology, Forestry 
Prerequisites: Summation of geometric series, elementary probability,
intuitive limits; for the Appendix, derivatives and
limits of rational functions. 

 ©2003 COMAP, Inc  UMAP/ILAP Modules 200304  17 pages 

We create a simple discrete probabilistic model for spread of a forest fire. We examine the conditions for which the fire will either die out or spread indefinitely, identifying and bounding a critical value for the probability
of transmission of the fire to an immediately adjacent location.
Table of Contents:
INTRODUCTION
FOREST FIRE MODEL
SPREAD OF THE FOREST FIRE
LOWER BOUND FOR pc
UPPER BOUND FOR pc
CONCLUSIONS
AREAS FOR FURTHER EXPLORATION
SOLUTIONS TO SELECTED EXERCISES
APPENDIX
REFERENCES
ABOUT THE AUTHOR



