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Product No. 99792 Supplementary Print Price: FREE with membership
 

The Spread of Forest Fires (UMAP)

Emily E. Puckette


Mathematics Topic:
Calculus, Probability
Application Areas:
Biology, Forestry
Prerequisites:
Summation of geometric series, elementary probability, intuitive limits; for the Appendix, derivatives and limits of rational functions.

| ©2003 COMAP, Inc | UMAP/ILAP Modules 2003-04 | 17 pages |


We create a simple discrete probabilistic model for spread of a forest fire. We examine the conditions for which the fire will either die out or spread indefinitely, identifying and bounding a critical value for the probability of transmission of the fire to an immediately adjacent location.

Table of Contents:

INTRODUCTION

FOREST FIRE MODEL

SPREAD OF THE FOREST FIRE

LOWER BOUND FOR pc

UPPER BOUND FOR pc

CONCLUSIONS

AREAS FOR FURTHER EXPLORATION

SOLUTIONS TO SELECTED EXERCISES

APPENDIX

REFERENCES

ABOUT THE AUTHOR